The recession present in the Italian economy in recent years is slowly giving way to a steady, albeit very modest, economic recovery.
The data related to the main economic sectors on November 2015 show that there is a slight increase in both industrial production and the retail sector, although these results still remain very far from the levels prior to the beginning of the economic crisis.
The signs of recovery in several sectors appear nevertheless tangible, allowing to formulate optimistic forecasts regarding the performance of the Italian economy, although it is still appropriate to operate very cautiously.
The scenario of the advertising investments during 2015 shows some encouraging results in terms of growth, especially towards the end of the year; it must not be fooled by the slight drop in the overall data elapsed between this year and 2014, in which investments have been strongly influenced by the presence of the Football World Cup.
For what concerns industrial production, the month of November registered a positive increase, marking a +0.9% compared to the same period last year. This result is positively influenced mainly by the increase in consumption of intermediate goods (+ 0.7%) and capital goods (+ 3.6%), while badly affected by the negative contraction concerning consumer durables (-3.3%) and consumer non-durables (-1.5%). The cumulative figure for January-November 2015 records a positive trend, with a + 1.1% compared to 2014. This figure confirms the modest recovery that is characterizing our economy in the last period, and is also confirmed by an overall increase of GDP of + 0.7% in 2015. To this result contributes the positive growth of the abroad trade sector, which detects in November an increase in exports of +6.4%, which strengthens the report accumulated from January to November, bringing overall growth in exports of + 3.8%.
The positive trend in industrial production is however reduced when compared with that of the period before the economic crisis. In particular, comparing the cumulative data of January-November 2015 with the same period of 2007, there is a net decrease of -22.8%, which shows that the economy is still far from pre-crisis levels.
The favourable trend in industrial production in November influences in a positive way also the investments in the advertising market, which record in the same period an increase of +2.2%. This finding adds to the positive growth already recorded in the period of October (+ 4.6%), and is also a consequence of the positive trend in the retail trade in the period January-November 2015 (+ 0.9%).
The augmentation of investments in November is mainly due to the positive data of the TV (+ 4.7%), Radio (+ 0.5%), of the Billboards (+ 12.5%), Satellite TV (+ 16%, the most consistent) and Internet (+ 0.5%). The media that show instead a decrease in investments are the Newspapers (-14.3%), Magazines (-10.9%), then noting an overall decline of print media, and the Cinema (-16.4%).
The cumulative figure for January-November 2015, however, became negative when compared with the same period of 2014, monitoring a decrease of -1.3%. To that decline contributes significantly once again the Cinema (-8.8%) and Newspapers (-7.9%). We must not forget, however, that investments in 2014 were very high because of the World Cup, an event that had a great impact on them.
Cumulative data in advertising spending in 2015 showed a sharp decline when compared with those of 2007 (pre-crisis), recording a net loss of 32.1%
Overall it is notable that the above data are accompanied by a general optimism (albeit to still very cautious levels) of businesses and consumers about the economic recovery. These data, strengthened by a slight recovery and by the increasing use of online channels, highlight once again the importance of relying on proven industry professionals to obtain efficient and profitable advertising campaigns.
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