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Advertising 2014

  • In front of last Nielsen data related to advertising spending in Italy updated in December 2013, what will be the scenario of the advertising market in 2014?

Last Nielsen data related to the advertising market in Italy in 2013 seem to speak clearly: 896 million euro less than in 2012 (-12,3%) and all the advertising media marked by a negative sign. The data, however, if analyzed per single month and by semester, let us suppose a market upturn which, if not in 2014 defined as a year of transition, might take place in 2015. In fact the month of December 2013 closes to -4% if compared to December 2012 and it is the one with the best performance, if compared to the other months of the year. We can see a slight recovery if we analyze the data related to semester: from January to June 2013 the decrease of the advertising spending is double-digit (-17%) while during the second half of 2013 the deficit was reduced, arriving to -6,3% if compared to the previous year.

According to Alberto Dal Sasso of Nielsen, the worst period of the crisis is now behind us and, even if we should wait still 2015 to talk about recovery, this year will head towards the balance and towards a slight positivity of the sign which has been negative for all 2013. 2014 will be a year of transition affected by political instability, stagnation of the GDP and media fragmentation but it will be marked also by positive notes that can encourage the growth such as the rise of the Italian Stock Exchange, sport events and the Expo.

Beyond assumptions and forecasts, 2013 showed a negative situation which is evident by reading the data from the point of view of the market sectors. Food, Automotive and TELCO which are those who hold the largest percentage of the advertising market, close the year with respectively -14,7%, -19,3% and -10,3%. The market sectors which suffer mostly are Leisure (-25,6%), Clothing (-22,2%) and Tourism (-20,3%) while we can see a more moderate decline by Organizations and Institutions (-1%), Toiletries (-3,2%) and Computers and Photography (-4,1%).

The only positive note that I like to underline is the performance of Internet which could soon exceed the market share of the Press which is 20% of the advertising market. The trend of advertising spending on the Internet in 2013 closes to -1,8% and the medium shows for the first time a negative sign. The data is extrapolated by Nielsen’s surveys that affect only 7% of the entire market and they exclude from the analysis some of the most important areas of the Web advertising such as Social Advertising, Search and Directories that are estimated around 10%. By adding these data to the analysis we can see probably a positive balance for the advertising investments on the Internet in 2013.

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